{"text_format":"1","workbook":"xlsx","n_sheets":6,"sheets":["Introduction","Activate Buttons","Control and Results","DCF","Placement Factors","Default Values"],"not_rendered":{"charts":3,"images":8,"macros":1,"external_links":0,"defined_names":79,"comments":1,"pivot_tables":0},"unopened":[],"bounds":{"document_bytes":16777216,"sheet_cells":100000,"rows_first":2000,"rows_last":500,"rows_between":2000,"halvings":0,"cell_chars":16384,"cell_head_chars":4096},"cells_cut":0,"cells_raw":0,"read":"whole","date_system":"1900"}

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[null,null,null,null,null,null,"Introduction"]
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[null,null,"Background"]
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[null,null,"This discounted cash flow (DCF) model was developed in the course of task 5.1 of the AURES project. With it, we intend to simulate the necessary support levels for single renewable energy investment projects under particular market conditions and assuming country and technology specific project characteristics as well as different auction designs. The main output is a non-strategic bid price, indicating that it is mainly based on economic calculations and does not include profound game theoretic modelling. The cash flow model aims at developing an understanding for economically feasible support levels. It has been published on the AURES webpage. The model consists of four worksheets. Worksheet \"Control and Results\" is the interface with the user, where all inputs are defined, the calculations are initiated and the results are displayed. The sheet \"DCF\" contains the DCF calculations. In the sheet \"Placement Factors\" the numerical factors for the final placement of the necessary support level are defined. The worksheet \"Default Values\" contains pre-defined values which allow an automatic fill-in of assumptions for a chosen configuration of technology and location for obtaining fast results. In this current version of the model, the default values are preliminary estimates and there is no guarantee for their reliability. The data base for the default values will be updated for subsequent versions which will be published on the AURES webpage. For further explanaitions of the used methods and calculations as well as more detailed information on how to use the model, please see the seperate document \"User Guide for DCF Model in AURES WP5\"."]
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[null,null,"General Use"]
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[null,null,"All inputs should be inserted into the sheet \"Control and Results\". The following colour codes apply for the cells:"]
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[null,null,null,null,"user input. The user is free to change values in these cells."]
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[null,null,null,null,"user input.The value in this cell is not included in the calculations under the current configuration."]
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[null,null,null,null,"necessary input. The user should insert a value for this parameter in order to make the DCF model working properly."]
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[null,null,null,null,"model output. "]
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[null,null,"Some user inputs can only be chosen from a pre-defined drop-down list."]
[null,null,"The button \"new project\" clears all user input cells. It is recommended to always use the button before defining a new scenario to avoid confusing old and new data."]
[null,null,"The button \"insert default values\" inserts default values in some user input cells. The button requires the choice of \"technology\" and \"location\"."]
[null,null,"After all necessary inputs are inserted, the button \"calculate necessary support\" initiates the calculations."]
[null,null,"The button \"calculate threshold values\" initiates the calculation of the threshold values for Capacity Factor, WACC and CAPEX."]
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[null,null,"Authors"]
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[null,null,"Lena Kitzing (DTU), Paul Wendring (DTU)                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          _\nProject deliverable: \nWP5 – Model based analysis: learning from simulation. \nTask 5.1 – Cashflow-type model to analyse changes in private investment incentives\n \n"]
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[null,null,"Visit the AURES project homepage"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"This project has received funding from The European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 646172 "]

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[null,null,null,null,null,null,"Activate the Buttons"]
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[null,null,"Change the macro security settings"]
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[null,null,"The calculations are initiated with the buttons in the \"Control and Results\" sheet. You have to make sure that macros in this worksheet are enabled in order to be able to use the buttons. Depending on your individual computer settings, one of the following cases should apply when you open the model file:                                                                                  A yellow message bar appears on the top, giving you a security warning. Here, you have to click on \"Enable Content\"."]
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[null,null,"If the message bar does not appear or you did not click on the \"Enable Content\" button, you have to change the security settings in your excel version. For this, please execute the following steps:"]
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[null,null,"1. Click the File tab"]
[null,null,"2. In the Security Warning area, click on Enable Content"]
[null,null,"3. Choose Enable All Content,  Always enable this document's active content (make this a Trusted Document)."]
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[null,null,"For further information concerning the macro security settings, please look at the official microsoft office support"]
[null,null,"here."]

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[null,null,null,null,null,"Inputs",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"ancillary variables"]
[]
[]
[null,null,"Project Characteristics",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Wind onshore"]
[null,null,null,null,"Unit",null,null,"Assumptions","Start","Low","Medium","High","Unit",null,null,null,"Wind offshore"]
[null,null,"Technology",null,null,null,null,"Capacity Factor",null,null,null,null,"[%]",null,null,null,"Solar PV"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Achieved Price",null,null,null,null,"[€/MWh]",null,null,"for rage suggestion",null,null,"for threshold analysis"]
[null,null,"Location",null,null,null,null,"CAPEX",null,null,null,null,"[€/kW]",null,null,"max. Cf",{"$f":"IF(D7=\"Solar PV\",'Default Values'!R69,IF(D7=\"Wind offshore\",'Default Values'!U72,'Default Values'!U70))","v":0.35},null,"initial CAPEX",995]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"OPEX",null,null,null,null,"[€/kW*a]",null,null,"min. Cf",{"$f":"IF(D7=\"Solar PV\",'Default Values'!P69,IF(D7=\"Wind offshore\",'Default Values'!S72,'Default Values'!S70))","v":0.2},null,"initial WACC",0.1]
[null,null,"Operating Time",null,"[years]",null,null,"Balancing Expenditures",null,null,null,null,"[%/a]",null,null,"max.CAPEX",{"$f":"IF(D7=\"Solar PV\",'Default Values'!O69,IF(D7=\"Wind offshore\",'Default Values'!L72,'Default Values'!L70))","v":1500},null,"initial Cap.Fac.",0.115]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Corporate Tax Rate",null,null,null,null,"[%]",null,null,"min. CAPEX",{"$f":"IF(D7=\"Solar PV\",'Default Values'!M69,IF(D7=\"Wind offshore\",'Default Values'!J72,'Default Values'!J70))","v":900}]
[null,null,"Lead Time",null,"[years]",null,null,"Inflation Rate",null,null,null,null,"[%]",null,null,"max. OPEX",{"$f":"IF(D7=\"Solar PV\",'Default Values'!I69,IF(D7=\"Wind offshore\",'Default Values'!F72,'Default Values'!F70))","v":50}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"WACC",null,null,null,null,"[%]",null,null,"min. OPEX",{"$f":"IF(D7=\"Solar PV\",'Default Values'!G69,IF(D7=\"Wind offshore\",'Default Values'!D72,'Default Values'!D70))","v":30}]
[null,null,"Delay Probability",null,"[%]"]
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[null,null,"Length of Delay",null,"[years]"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"for maximum delay warning",null,null,"for maximum lead time"]
[null,null,"Non-compliance Probability",null,"[%]",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"max.delay",{"$f":"35-D11-D13","v":35},null,{"$f":"35-D11","v":35}]
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[null,null,"Depreciation time",null,"[years]"]
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[null,null,"Investor's Risk Averseness",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"risk averseness graph"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0,10,{"$f":"10*F25","v":0},{"$f":"10-I25*10","v":10},2.2000000000000002,2.2000000000000002]
[null,null,null,"Increase Lower Limit by",null,null,null,"Reduce Upper Limit by"]
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[null,null,"Support Characteristics"]
[null,null,null,null,"Unit",null,null,"Penalty for Delay",null,"Unit"]
[null,null,"Remuneration Type",null,null,null,null,"One-off Payment",null,"[€/kW]","in year:",null,"after contracting",null,null,null,null,null,"delay penaties"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"one-off",{"$f":"IF(D13+D17<L29,0,I29)","v":0}]
[null,null,"Duration of Support",null,"[years]",null,null,"Reduced Support Level",null,"[ct/kWh]",null,null,null,null,"check if penalties apply",null,null,null,"reduced level",{"$f":"IF(D13+D17<L29,0,I31)","v":0}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"delay",{"$f":"L29-(D13+D17)","v":0},null,null,"reduced duration",{"$f":"IF(D13+D17<L29,0,I33)","v":0}]
[null,null,"Prequalification Cost/Sunk Cost",null,"[€/kW]",null,null,"Reduced Support Duration",null,"[years]",null,null,null,null,"non-compliance",{"$f":"L36-(D13+D17)","v":0}]
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[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Penalty for Non-compliance",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"non-compliance penalty"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"One-off Payment",null,"[€/kW]","in year:",null,"after contracting",null,null,null,null,null,"one-off",{"$f":"IF(D13+D17<L36,0,I36)","v":0}]
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[null,null,"Market Conditions",null,null,null,null,"Market Position"]
[null,null,null,null,"factor",null,null,null,null,"factor",null,null,null,null,null,null,"strong"]
[null,null,"Level of Competition",null,{"$f":"IF(ISTEXT(D40),INDEX('Placement Factors'!F3:F5,MATCH('Control and Results'!D40,Rcompetition,0),1),\"\")","v":""},null,null,"Market Position",null,{"$f":"IF(ISTEXT(I40),INDEX('Placement Factors'!D3:D5,MATCH('Control and Results'!I40,'Placement Factors'!C3:C5,0),1),\"\")","v":""},null,null,null,null,null,null,"weak",null,null,null,null,null,null,"pay-as bid","sliding premium","yes"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"uniform pricing","fixed premium","no"]
[null,null,"Sunk Cost",null,{"$f":"IF(ISTEXT(D42),INDEX('Placement Factors'!L3:L5,MATCH('Control and Results'!D42,'Placement Factors'!K3:K5,0),1),\"\")","v":""},null,null,"Ambition to Win",null,{"$f":"IF(ISTEXT(I42),INDEX('Placement Factors'!H3:H5,MATCH('Control and Results'!I42,Rambition,0),1),\"\")","v":""}]
[]
[null,null,"Secondary Benefits",null,{"$f":"IF(ISTEXT(D44),INDEX('Placement Factors'!J3:J5,MATCH('Control and Results'!D44,'Placement Factors'!I3:I5,0),1),\"\")","v":""}]
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[null,null,null,null,null,"Results"]
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[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"for price range figure:"]
[null,null,"Main Results",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"full range","limited range"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"D69","v":0},{"$f":"D71","v":""},null,{"$f":"D69-0.5","v":-0.5}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,{"$f":"F69-D69","v":0},{"$f":"F71-D71","v":{"$error":"#VALUE!"}}]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"position of dot:","position of arrows"]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,4,2.5]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,2.5]
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[null,null,null,"Placement According to Market Conditions and Position",null,null,null,{"$f":"IF(ISNUMBER(E40),PRODUCT(E40,E42,J40,J42,E44),\"\")","v":""},null,"Range Limit According to Risk Averseness"]
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[null,null,null,"Selected Non-strategic Bid Price [ct/kWh]",null,null,null,{"$f":"IF(ISNUMBER(Q50),Q50+(Q51*H60),\"\")","v":""}]
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[null,null,"Additional Results"]
[null,null,"Support Level Ranges",null,null,null,null,"NPV and IRR "]
[null,null,null,"scenario:",null,null,null,null,null,"scenario:"]
[null,null,null,"low","medium","high",null,null,null,"low","medium","high"]
[null,null,"Without Risk Averseness  [ct/kWh]",null,null,null,null,"Project NPV Receiving Bid Price [€/kW]"]
[]
[null,null,"With Risk Averseness  [ct/kWh]",{"$f":"IF(ISNUMBER(D69),D69+(F69-D69)*F25,\"\")","v":""},{"$f":"IF(ISNUMBER(E69),E69,\"\")","v":""},{"$f":"IF(ISNUMBER(F69),F69-(F69-D69)*I25,\"\")","v":""},null,"Project IRR Receiving Bid Price [€/kW]"]
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[null,null,null,null,null,null,"Support Analysis"]
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[null,null,null,"Received Support:",null,null,{"$f":"H62","v":""}," [ct/kWh]"]
[null,null,null,"NPV of Support Payments:",null,null,{"$f":"DCF!D76","v":0}," [€/kW]"]
[]
[null,null,null,"Basic Project NPV:",null,null,{"$f":"DCF!D24","v":0}," [€/kW]"]
[null,null,null,"Project IRR:",null,null,{"$f":"IF(ISNUMBER(DCF!D25),DCF!D25,\"\")","v":""}]
[null,null,null,"LCOE :",null,null,{"$f":"IF(ISNUMBER(DCF!D71),DCF!D71*100,\"\")","v":""}," [ct/kWh]"]
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[null,null,null,null,null,"Threshold Values for Basic Project NPV"]
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[null,null,null,null,null,"Capacity Factor:"]
[null,null,null,null,null,"CAPEX:",null," [€/kW]"]
[null,null,null,null,null,"WACC:"]

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[null,null,"Active Capacity Factor","Medium",null,"Active CAPEX","Medium",null,"support level",{"$f":"'Control and Results'!G76","v":""},"[ct/kWh]"]
[null,null,"Active Achieved Price","Medium",null,"Active OPEX","Medium"]
[null,null,"Power Production Calculation"]
[null,null,"Project Year",0,1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35]
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[null,null,"PRODUCTION [kWh/kW]",{"$f":"IF(D4<'Control and Results'!$D$13+1,0,INDEX('Control and Results'!$J$7:$L$7,1,MATCH(DCF!$D$1,'Control and Results'!$J$6:$L$6,0))*8760)","v":0},{"$f":"IF(E4<'Control and Results'!$D$13+1,0,INDEX('Control and Results'!$J$7:$L$7,1,MATCH(DCF!$D$1,'Control and Results'!$J$6:$L$6,0))*8760)","v":0},{"$f":"IF(F4<'Control and Results'!$D$13+1,0,INDEX('Control and Results'!$J$7:$L$7,1,MATCH(DCF!$D$1,'Control and Results'!$J$6:$L$6,0))*8760)","v":0},{"$f":"IF(G4<'Control and Results'!$D$13+1,0,INDEX('Control and Results'!$J$7:$L$7,1,MATCH(DCF!$D$1,'Control and Results'!$J$6:$L$6,0))*8760)","v":0},{"$f":"IF(H4<'Control and Results'!$D$13+1,0,INDEX('Control and Results'!$J$7:$L$7,1,MATCH(DCF!$D$1,'Control and Results'!$J$6:$L$6,0))*8760)","v":0},{"$f":"IF(I4<'Control and Results'!$D$13+1,0,INDEX('Control and Results'!$J$7:$L$7,1,MATCH(DCF!$D$1,'Control and Results'!$J$6:$L$6,0))*8760)","v":0},{"$f":"IF(J4<'Control and Results'!$D$13+1,0,INDEX('Control and 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[]
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[null,null,"inflation index",{"$f":"1","v":1},{"$f":"D10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"E10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"F10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"G10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"H10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"I10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"J10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"K10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"L10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"M10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"N10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"O10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"P10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"Q10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"R10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"S10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"T10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"U10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"V10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"W10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"X10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"Y10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"Z10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"AA10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"AB10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"AC10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"AD10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"AE10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"AF10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"AG10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"AH10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"AI10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"AJ10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"AK10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1},{"$f":"AL10*(1+'Control and Results'!$K$13)","v":1}]
[]
[null,null,"Basic DCF Calculation"]
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{"sheet":"Default Values","index":5,"n_rows":72,"n_cols":21,"rows_kept":72,"cut":false,"hidden":false,"merged":[[66,3,66,5],[66,6,66,8],[66,9,66,11],[66,15,66,17],[66,18,66,20],[66,12,66,14]]}
[]
[null,null,null,null,"Default Values"]
[]
[null,null,null,"Country Specific Values"]
[null,null,"Country","WACC (%)","Corporate Tax Rate (%)","Inflation (%)","El Market Price  [€/MWh]"]
[]
[null,null,"AT",6.5000000000000002E-2,0.25,2.8999999999999998E-2,35]
[null,null,"BE",5.5E-2,0.33990000000000004,2.7000000000000003E-2,35]
[null,null,"BG",0.1,0.1,4.2000000000000003E-2,30]
[null,null,"HR",0.12,0.2,1.7000000000000001E-2,50]
[null,null,"CY",0.1,0.125,2E-3,60]
[null,null,"CZ",0.08,0.19,2.5000000000000001E-2,38]
[null,null,"DK",0.06,0.22,2.7999999999999997E-2,25]
[null,null,"EE",0.08,0.2,2.7999999999999997E-2,25]
[null,null,"FI",6.5000000000000002E-2,0.2,2.5000000000000001E-2,25]
[null,null,"FR",0.06,0.33299999999999996,2.1000000000000001E-2,35]
[null,null,"DE",0.04,0.29649999999999999,2.7000000000000003E-2,35]
[null,null,"EL",0.12,0.28999999999999998,2.6000000000000002E-2,50]
[null,null,"HU",0.113,0.19,0.03,38]
[null,null,"IE",0.09,0.125,4.0999999999999995E-2,45]
[null,null,"IT",0.08,0.314,1.8000000000000002E-2,50]
[null,null,"LV",0.09,0.15,2.5000000000000001E-2,25]
[null,null,"LT",9.3000000000000013E-2,0.15,2.2000000000000002E-2,25]
[null,null,"LU",0.06,0.29220000000000002,2.7999999999999997E-2,35]
[null,null,"MT",0.1,0.35,2.2000000000000002E-2,60,null,null,null," "]
[null,null,"NL",6.4000000000000001E-2,0.25,1.9E-2,35]
[null,null,"PL",0.09,0.19,2.3E-2,38]
[null,null,"PT",0.08,0.21,2.5000000000000001E-2,50]
[null,null,"RO",0.111,0.16,2.7999999999999997E-2,38]
[null,null,"SK",8.1000000000000003E-2,0.22,2.5000000000000001E-2,38]
[null,null,"SI",0.11,0.17,2.7999999999999997E-2,38]
[null,null,"ES",0.1,0.28000000000000003,2.4E-2,50]
[null,null,"SE",0.08,0.22,2.6000000000000002E-2,25]
[null,null,"UK",6.5000000000000002E-2,0.2,2.5000000000000001E-2,50]
[]
[null,null,"Sources:","diacore","tradingeconomics","tradingeconomics","European Commission"]
[null,null,null,null,"no reliable source found yet for numbers in red."]
[]
[null,null,null,"Technology Specific Values"]
[]
[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"Sources:"]
[null,null,null," default values OPEX"]
[null,null,null,null,"low","medium","high"]
[null,null,null,"Wind onshore",36,39,42,"KIC InnoEnergy (2014)"]
[null,null,null,"Wind offshore",90,100,110,"IEA"]
[null,null,null,"Solar PV",19,20,21,"KIC InnoEnergy (2015)"]
[]
[null,null,null,"default values CAPEX"]
[null,null,null,null,"low","medium","high"]
[null,null,null,"Wind onshore",1150,1200,1250,"EWEA (2013)"]
[null,null,null,"Wind offshore",3500,3600,3700,"IEA"]
[null,null,null,"Solar PV",935,995,1055,"AGORA"]
[]
[null,null,null,"default values capacity factor"]
[null,null,null,null,"low","medium","high"]
[null,null,null,"Wind onshore",0.22,0.24,0.26,"IEA"]
[null,null,null,"Wind offshore",0.37,0.4,0.43,"IEA"]
[null,null,null,"Solar PV",0.11,0.115,0.12,"Solarenergieförderverein Deutschland e.v."]
[]
[null,null,null,"other default values"]
[null,null,null,null,"operating time [years]","lead time [years]","depreciation [years]"]
[null,null,null,"Wind onshore",20,3,20]
[null,null,null,"Wind offshore",20,3,20]
[null,null,null,"Solar PV",25,1,20]
[]
[null,null,null,null,"Suggested min and max Values"]
[null,null,null,"OPEX - Wind ",null,null,"Opex -Solar PV [€/kW]",null,null,"CAPEX- Wind  [€/kW]",null,null,"CAPEX- Solar PV [€/kW]",null,null,"Capacity Factor - Solar PV",null,null,"Capacity Factor - Wind"]
[null,null,null,"min","medium","max","min","medium","max","min","medium","max","min","medium","max","min","medium","max","min","medium","max"]
[null,null,null,null,"onshore:",null,6,14,22,null,"onshore:",null,800,1150,1500,0.09,0.115,0.14000000000000001,null,"onshore:"]
[null,null,null,30,40,50,null,null,null,900,1200,1500,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.2,0.27500000000000002,0.35]
[null,null,null,null,"offshore:",null,null,null,null,null,"offshore:",null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,"offshore:"]
[null,null,null,80,115,150,null,null,null,2000,3500,3600,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.3,0.4,0.5]